Here's an observation about New Hampshire (and, yes, I was dead wrong on Iowa. My analytical ability is highly suspect. And yet I persist).
Compare the polls from Iowa and New Hampshire at this page. You're note that the aggregate spread in Iowa at the very end was Obama by plus 1.6. Obviously, Obama blew the roof off, and the polling prediction wasn't ultimately very accurate (though, of course, it was more accurate than my prediction, as I've noted).
Why was the Iowa poll off the mark? Because Obama's turnout was significantly higher than any predicted by any of the polls.
Similarly, check out the spread on Obama in New Hampshire. He's plus 3.4 (as of Sunday, it may change later in the week). What this doesn't reveal is what the turnout assumptions are. But, assuming they're relatively standard, they may underpredict any Obama success if his turnout is like it was in Iowa.
Will the turnout be higher? I don't know. But this story gives one a reason to think it might be. As does this one.
Sunday, January 6
Saturday, January 5
Something that sucks
I had intended to download all of our pictures from Christmas this weekend and do some serious updating to the blog. Sadly, I can't, because someone broke into our house and took our camera, along with our DVD player, and a game system we bought several years before Owen was born so that I could learn how to play video games in case we later had a son I would need to bond with as an adolescent.
It was a strange crime; we had a lot more stuff they could have taken (like checkbooks, or CD players, or the computer I'm typing this on now), but they didn't. As far as we can tell, they just took the three things I talk about above. Which is nice, but, of course, it would be nicer still if they hadn't broken into our house in the first place.
So, if anyone can recommend a good digital camera . . .
It was a strange crime; we had a lot more stuff they could have taken (like checkbooks, or CD players, or the computer I'm typing this on now), but they didn't. As far as we can tell, they just took the three things I talk about above. Which is nice, but, of course, it would be nicer still if they hadn't broken into our house in the first place.
So, if anyone can recommend a good digital camera . . .
Edwards' dad
I just learned in the democratic debate that John Edwards' dad worked in a mill.
Why didn't he share that with the American people earlier?
Why didn't he share that with the American people earlier?
Thursday, January 3
Caucuses - Wow!
Boy, I've never been happier to be wrong. It turns out, not only are the kids alright, but they also know how to get to the caucus. Nice! I'm really happily surprised to see a black man win Iowa by such a wide margin. I didn't really think it could happen until now. Regardless of where we go from here, it's nice to be here now, at least.
All day I kept thinking how beautiful it is that the way we choose our leader is by having folks stop by a school after work to be counted. In the week after Benazir Bhutto was killed while running for office, and while horrific election-related violence runs through Kenya, it's particularly profound to me that neither Mitt Romney's money nor Hillary Clinton's connections were sufficient to get them a victory. It's not money or a network that gets you elected, but the good judgment of the people (and by people, I mean, of course, Iowans). Obviously, the system isn't perfect. Not everyone votes, and not everyone can vote. Particularly egregious is the rule that merely growing up in Iowa isn't enough to let you caucus there. But our system is still beautiful because even when we disagree, even when we disagree strongly, there's no blood in the streets. God bless America.
All day I kept thinking how beautiful it is that the way we choose our leader is by having folks stop by a school after work to be counted. In the week after Benazir Bhutto was killed while running for office, and while horrific election-related violence runs through Kenya, it's particularly profound to me that neither Mitt Romney's money nor Hillary Clinton's connections were sufficient to get them a victory. It's not money or a network that gets you elected, but the good judgment of the people (and by people, I mean, of course, Iowans). Obviously, the system isn't perfect. Not everyone votes, and not everyone can vote. Particularly egregious is the rule that merely growing up in Iowa isn't enough to let you caucus there. But our system is still beautiful because even when we disagree, even when we disagree strongly, there's no blood in the streets. God bless America.
Tuesday, January 1
Iowa Prediction
Here's my prediction for the winner in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday. A few caveats are in order first:
(1) This is not what I want to see happen, just what I think will happen. By way of example of this principle, I think Virginia Tech will win the Orange Bowl (Thursday night's other big event), though I would rather see Kansas win it as a matter of Big 12 loyalty.
(2) My predictions are more often wrong than right.
(3) My prediction has been agreed with by a political operative I know in Iowa. I will not mention his name, because he is hungry for any media exposure he can get in places like the New York Times or my blog, and I don't want to feed that egotism, but he has very good judgment about all things political, as evidenced by his agreement with this prediction.
(4) This prediction runs counter to the recent poll from the Des Moines Register.
The Prediction:
Edwards will win by at least 5 points. Obama and Clinton will finish within 2 points of each other.
(1) This is not what I want to see happen, just what I think will happen. By way of example of this principle, I think Virginia Tech will win the Orange Bowl (Thursday night's other big event), though I would rather see Kansas win it as a matter of Big 12 loyalty.
(2) My predictions are more often wrong than right.
(3) My prediction has been agreed with by a political operative I know in Iowa. I will not mention his name, because he is hungry for any media exposure he can get in places like the New York Times or my blog, and I don't want to feed that egotism, but he has very good judgment about all things political, as evidenced by his agreement with this prediction.
(4) This prediction runs counter to the recent poll from the Des Moines Register.
The Prediction:
Edwards will win by at least 5 points. Obama and Clinton will finish within 2 points of each other.
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