Iowa Prediction

Here's my prediction for the winner in the Iowa caucuses on Thursday. A few caveats are in order first:

(1) This is not what I want to see happen, just what I think will happen. By way of example of this principle, I think Virginia Tech will win the Orange Bowl (Thursday night's other big event), though I would rather see Kansas win it as a matter of Big 12 loyalty.

(2) My predictions are more often wrong than right.

(3) My prediction has been agreed with by a political operative I know in Iowa. I will not mention his name, because he is hungry for any media exposure he can get in places like the New York Times or my blog, and I don't want to feed that egotism, but he has very good judgment about all things political, as evidenced by his agreement with this prediction.

(4) This prediction runs counter to the recent poll from the Des Moines Register.

The Prediction:

Edwards will win by at least 5 points. Obama and Clinton will finish within 2 points of each other.